INTRODUCTION TO NEW SERIES: SUNBELT MIGRATION, POLITICS, AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Now that I’ve completed my series on the Civil War experiences of Union soldier Francis Harris, I am beginning a whole new series, on the back story of how climate change and domestic migration are intersecting, at this very moment, and also how both are fueling our political polarization.

Like everyone else in the U.S. during the summer of 2023, I have been shocked by the extreme heat being experienced across broad swaths of the country. Phoenix, Arizona has been particularly in the news, hitting 118 on July 18. In Texas, Dallas experienced 44 days at 100-degrees-plus; Austin 57, San Antonio 66. In Florida, Miami experienced 46 days over 100, and Orlando had the hottest August since its records began in 1892. What was particularly shocking was the continuity of the extreme heat, with Phoenix undergoing 31 straight days at 110-plus! One anecdote in particular has stuck with me: that people in Phoenix have been seriously burned by the water coming from their garden hoses!! This heat has been killing people, too: at least 133 in Arizona, and 147 in Texas, with many more deaths being investigated.

And of course the extreme heat has not been the only form of extreme weather experienced in recent times, especially (but not exclusively!) along the southern margin of the U.S. Florida has been hit by more major hurricanes than ever, most notably by Hurricane Ian in Sept. 2022. Collectively they have inflicted over $236 billion in damage since 2000- just in Florida! Ian’s equivalent in Texas was Hurricane Harvey, which hit East Texas, including Houston (13 million people altogether), in Aug. 2017. Some places got over 60 inches of rain in a matter of a few days, shattering the previous record of 52 inches; the result was that a third of Houston, the nation’s 4th largest city, went underwater, damaging 208,000 homes. And then there are the wildfires: in Texas alone, massive ones in 2006, 2011, 2022…

You get the idea. One would expect that, from all of the above, that these areas would be seeing a dramatic flight of people to cooler, and safer, locations. One would think! To quote an article that’s almost 3 years old:

For years, Americans have avoided confronting these changes in their own backyards. The decisions we make about where to live are distorted not just by politics that play down climate risks, but also by expensive subsidies and incentives aimed at defying nature. In much of the developing world, vulnerable people will attempt to flee the emerging perils of global warming, seeking cooler temperatures, more fresh water and safety. But here in the United States, people have largely gravitated toward environmental danger, building along coastlines from New Jersey to Florida and settling across the cloudless deserts of the Southwest…Across the United States, some 162 million people — nearly 1 in 2 — will most likely experience a decline in the quality of their environment, namely more heat and less water. For 93 million of them, the changes could be particularly severe, and by 2070, our analysis suggests, if carbon emissions rise at extreme levels, at least 4 million Americans could find themselves living at the fringe, in places decidedly outside the ideal niche for human life. (“Climate Change Will Force a New American Migration,” propublica.org, 9/15/2020- emphasis added)

The story I am about to trace is how Americans have been steadily moving, in the millions, into harm’s way, south, right into the path of today’s climate change and extreme weather. Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida in 1992; yet since then over 5 million people have moved to Florida! Phoenix, in the Sonoran Desert and facing extreme heat and drought, is now a metropolis which has soared past 4 million. And as America has aged, Florida and Arizona have been attracting the bulk of retirees for generations. Florida may not get the greatest number of tourists, but it’s the clear global #1 in tourist spending! More importantly, that rapid pace of growth in these areas has been going on for decades, with only brief lulls. Since World War II, and in the face of more and more negative environmental factors, America’s demographic center has been steadily moving southward. And with that move has come an equally dramatic shift in economic dynamism and political power at the national level (since population size translates directly into electoral college votes). Note, for example, how Governors Abbott (Texas) and DeSantis (Florida) stand out in the news these days!

Such a general “Sunbelt” migration has been noted at least since the 1960’s, but the migrating has not been to all states in the South and West (Deep South states like Louisiana and Mississippi, for example, have seen shrinking populations). Three states in particular stand out in their massive population growth: Arizona, Texas, and Florida. One example: Texas alone has added 9 million people, just from 2000 to 2022!

Yet each of these states now faces its own individual environmental crises:

Arizona- extreme heat, wildfires, water shortage (both river & groundwater)

Texas- extreme heat, more frequent floods and droughts, water shortages and water contamination

Florida- water contamination, both freshwater and ocean (i.e. more algal blooms and red tides), plus sea level rise (resulting in salt water intrusion into groundwater), and more frequent and extreme hurricanes

Which leads me to my research questions for this series of posts: When did this sustained mass migration to these 3 states begin? Why did it begin, and what factors have sustained the migration for so long, in the face of the hazards listed above? And how has this sustained migration impacted the America of today- economically, politically, socially, and (especially) environmentally?

Coming to grips with these questions has already taken me on such a fascinating journey! Far from having any single cause, the story of Sunbelt migration also involves air conditioning, labor unions, racial politics, DDT, and Social Security, to name a few… In the process, I’ve learned about the importance of Del Webb and Sun City, Jesse Jones and the Suite 8F Group, the Macklin brothers, and the Pork Chop Gang- none of whom I ever encountered in my 35 years of teaching U.S. history! If any on this list intrigues you, all will be revealed in this series!

I will be telling this complex story, not in a continuous narrative, but in a series of snapshots- pivotal moments- focusing especially on the roots of urban growth- of Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, Miami, etc.- in the 3 states, all the way up to today. My first snapshot will reach back over a century, to the dawn of the Automobile Age: to what was happening in Arizona, Texas and Florida in 1913-1915 (yes, the roots go that far back!). To be posted soon!